A moving debt counter makes an enormous sum easier to grasp. It can also suggest a precision no one possesses. Our display starts with an official monthly estimate, then uses a labelled calculation to illustrate the pace implied by a forecast.
The starting figure
At the end of July 2026, the ONS provisionally estimated public sector net debt excluding public sector banks at £2,984.9 billion, or 94.1% of GDP. That is an estimate for a particular date. It does not change every second. The console keeps the latest validated ONS month visible, with a link to its source.
The moving illustration uses the March 2026 OBR forecast of a £130.8 billion increase in public sector net debt during 2026/27. We spread that increase evenly across 31,536,000 seconds and apply the resulting rate from 00:00 UTC on the first day after the ONS reference month. The displayed result is rounded to the nearest £1 million. It stops at the end of the forecast year until a new forecast is incorporated.
This is a deliberately simple illustration. It takes no account of seasonal patterns, new policies or later revisions. Neither the ONS estimate nor the OBR forecast supplies an observed path through each second of the year, and our calculation is not an official nowcast.
Why borrowing and debt growth differ
The same OBR forecast puts net borrowing at £115.5 billion. That is less than the forecast increase in debt because borrowing is not the only thing that changes the debt stock. Financial transactions, valuation changes and timing matter too. Substituting the borrowing figure would change the calculation we are trying to show.
What accumulates while you read
The elapsed counters use four annual forecast amounts: £1,419 billion in total managed expenditure, £352.8 billion in welfare, £109.4 billion in central government debt interest net of the Asset Purchase Facility, and £115.5 billion in borrowing. Each amount is divided by 365 × 24 × 60 × 60, then multiplied by the time since the page opened.
These are equivalent amounts at a uniform rate. They are not receipts from government bank accounts. Welfare and interest are already included in total spending, so adding the counters together would count some expenditure twice and mix spending with borrowing.
Pause holds the displayed figures still. Resume catches up with elapsed time. Start again begins the elapsed-time calculation afresh.
What happens to £100
The inflation tool asks a separate question: what would a constant annual rate do to an amount over time? It offers the dated ONS CPI rate, the Bank of England’s 2% target or a rate chosen by the reader.
The arithmetic is compound growth: future cost = amount × (1 + rate/100)years. Purchasing power = amount ÷ (1 + rate/100)years. Holding a rate constant lets us explore a scenario. It does not forecast inflation or predict the costs faced by a particular household.
Reading the labels
● Official identifies a figure reported by its publisher; forecasts are explicitly labelled as forecasts. ◐ Modelled marks a Cartulary calculation. ◇ Disclosed means information supplied in response to an information request. An acknowledgement or refusal does not qualify as a disclosure.
The spending wheel also keeps its periods separate. The 2026/27 forecast and the 2025/26 service outturn have different scopes as well as different dates. Open a branch to find the source behind it. The methodology notes explain rounding and residual amounts.
Read the OBR March 2026 forecast or the ONS July 2026 debt bulletin. The figures and calculations are available in The Ledger.
